Gen. Geo. Washington, our likely Prefident
PAMPHLET 69, No. 12
Addreffed to
THE INHABITANTS
OF
AMERICA
On the Interefting Subject of
POLITICAL PROGNOSTICATION
By Nathanial Silber
Writ Upon the Ifle of Manhattan
On the Sixth Day of January
In the Year 1789
Tomorrow, Americans will vote for the first President of our United States. Months of Campaigning are in Abeyance, and the Election shall at last be placed into the Hands the People. However, it is fitting that, one last Time, we peer into the Entrails of this Election Season and cipher another Augury for the Future.
Victory for General Washington is by no means assured, but it remains extremely likely since he is running unopposed. If the Election were held today, he would receive the Entirety of the Popular Vote as well as the Entirety of the Electoral College Vote.
Again, I remind the Reader that this Electoral College is not an actual College, such as that which can be found in New Haven, Conn. or Cambridge, Mass., a place full of the Young bent upon Learning, and the Old committed towards Teaching. For reasons mysterious, Delegates at our recent Continental Congress have bequeathed this stupid and confusing Name upon our Electors. All sound Minds expect its imminent Change. Pamphlet 69 suggests “The Legion of Arbiters.”
I entreat the Reader to forgive this Meanderment. I now return to the Narrow Course of Scientific Prognostication: if the General wishes to dwell in Philadelphia for a Term and nurse this Infant Nation, he must Appeal to and Delight at least 35 of the 69 Members of the Electoral College, and thusly secure his Majority. (The total number of Electors therefore attaches itself to the Title of my Pamphlet, I mark as I pass.)
I have entered all the Possibilities into my Probability Machine—a clockwork Contraption described in Detail in a Previous Edition of Pamphlet 69—and in over 1,713 Experimental Elections, the General has won 1,713 times.
Does this auspicious Record of Calculations assure Gen. Washington’s Victory? Decidedly not! These are but Probabilities, not Prophecies. Despite what my devious and pusillanimous Detractor, Mr. Joseph Scarborough, might believe, I have never claimed to be Isaiah. (Though I repeat my wager: a barrel of rum and four plump pheasants from the man whose Discernment proves to be the Work of Folly.) I refer Mr. Scarborough, and you, Dear Reader, to my previous Analyses in Pamphlet 69, No. 8, concerning Swan of Black Feather Events. A massive invasion by a foreign Army or the beginning of the End Times could hurl this Election into Disarray. Augurists, however, believe the latter unlikely as very few Signs—such as Blooded Seas, Forests Engulfed by Fire, or Cows That Stand Upright and Till the Soil—have been discerned anywhere of late. Naytheless, the wise Man knows this: the Ways of Providence are not the Ways of Man, and His Glorious Return shall come, “As a Thief in the Night.”
So barring the massed Forces of France (a Country with its own considerable Problems at present) assaulting Cape Cod betwixt To-day and To-morrow, and barring the Triumphant Return of Our Lord, George Washington can sleep well in whichever Inn he is lodging tonight.
For the Reader who wishes to “bore down” further into the Hellish Tedium of Mathematical Prognostication, he is invited to read on. However, if he does not, he risks no Injury.
The best Chance for a George Washington Victory lies with his Standing and Esteem amongst Land-owning White Males. One might call this the Most Important Demographic in that it is the Only Demographic eligible to participate. Inquiries of late have shewn that his Popularity among Women has plummeted from a 100 Percent Approval Estimation to a mere 99 Percent. However, most Prognosticators agree that this Diminishment shall not affect his Chances since Women cannot vote. Likewise, the General’s recent slackening of Popularity with the oft-ignored Scurvey-Ridden Irishmen Demographic—down to 97 Percent of possible Approval Points—is irrelevant since they are not Natives to these States, and the Right to vote only extends to Natives.
It is imperative that the General retain his Popularity in several key states, by which I mean the so-called “Only Ten States Eligible to Participate in this Election Since Rhode Island and North Carolina Have Not Yet Ratified Our Brand New Constitution and Since New York Failed to Nominate Any Electors In Time.” This cumbersome Nick-name has been truncated to “Swing State.”
The Likelihood, to coin a word, is that he shall carry each of these Swing States, and carry them well, much as the fabled Bear carries off Honey and gives it to the Lamb. Recall, General Washington is running unopposed.
It is meet and proper to affirm once more that Circumstances could change ‘tween now and the Commencement of the Election. Were a Giant Meteor, say, to smash this planet into Oblivion, then no one would win. Barring that calamitous Fate, I close with the Presumption that General Washington’s Victory is imminent, and that, in the Future, Posterity will use paper Money in addition to Coins, and that this First President will be on its One Dollar Bill. Of course, this final Prognostication is but a wild Guess from a half-insane Mathematist.
Again, I remind the Reader that this Electoral College is not an actual College, such as that which can be found in New Haven, Conn. or Cambridge, Mass., a place full of the Young bent upon Learning, and the Old committed towards Teaching. For reasons mysterious, Delegates at our recent Continental Congress have bequeathed this stupid and confusing Name upon our Electors. All sound Minds expect its imminent Change. Pamphlet 69 suggests “The Legion of Arbiters.”
I entreat the Reader to forgive this Meanderment. I now return to the Narrow Course of Scientific Prognostication: if the General wishes to dwell in Philadelphia for a Term and nurse this Infant Nation, he must Appeal to and Delight at least 35 of the 69 Members of the Electoral College, and thusly secure his Majority. (The total number of Electors therefore attaches itself to the Title of my Pamphlet, I mark as I pass.)
I have entered all the Possibilities into my Probability Machine—a clockwork Contraption described in Detail in a Previous Edition of Pamphlet 69—and in over 1,713 Experimental Elections, the General has won 1,713 times.
Does this auspicious Record of Calculations assure Gen. Washington’s Victory? Decidedly not! These are but Probabilities, not Prophecies. Despite what my devious and pusillanimous Detractor, Mr. Joseph Scarborough, might believe, I have never claimed to be Isaiah. (Though I repeat my wager: a barrel of rum and four plump pheasants from the man whose Discernment proves to be the Work of Folly.) I refer Mr. Scarborough, and you, Dear Reader, to my previous Analyses in Pamphlet 69, No. 8, concerning Swan of Black Feather Events. A massive invasion by a foreign Army or the beginning of the End Times could hurl this Election into Disarray. Augurists, however, believe the latter unlikely as very few Signs—such as Blooded Seas, Forests Engulfed by Fire, or Cows That Stand Upright and Till the Soil—have been discerned anywhere of late. Naytheless, the wise Man knows this: the Ways of Providence are not the Ways of Man, and His Glorious Return shall come, “As a Thief in the Night.”
So barring the massed Forces of France (a Country with its own considerable Problems at present) assaulting Cape Cod betwixt To-day and To-morrow, and barring the Triumphant Return of Our Lord, George Washington can sleep well in whichever Inn he is lodging tonight.
For the Reader who wishes to “bore down” further into the Hellish Tedium of Mathematical Prognostication, he is invited to read on. However, if he does not, he risks no Injury.
The best Chance for a George Washington Victory lies with his Standing and Esteem amongst Land-owning White Males. One might call this the Most Important Demographic in that it is the Only Demographic eligible to participate. Inquiries of late have shewn that his Popularity among Women has plummeted from a 100 Percent Approval Estimation to a mere 99 Percent. However, most Prognosticators agree that this Diminishment shall not affect his Chances since Women cannot vote. Likewise, the General’s recent slackening of Popularity with the oft-ignored Scurvey-Ridden Irishmen Demographic—down to 97 Percent of possible Approval Points—is irrelevant since they are not Natives to these States, and the Right to vote only extends to Natives.
It is imperative that the General retain his Popularity in several key states, by which I mean the so-called “Only Ten States Eligible to Participate in this Election Since Rhode Island and North Carolina Have Not Yet Ratified Our Brand New Constitution and Since New York Failed to Nominate Any Electors In Time.” This cumbersome Nick-name has been truncated to “Swing State.”
The Likelihood, to coin a word, is that he shall carry each of these Swing States, and carry them well, much as the fabled Bear carries off Honey and gives it to the Lamb. Recall, General Washington is running unopposed.
It is meet and proper to affirm once more that Circumstances could change ‘tween now and the Commencement of the Election. Were a Giant Meteor, say, to smash this planet into Oblivion, then no one would win. Barring that calamitous Fate, I close with the Presumption that General Washington’s Victory is imminent, and that, in the Future, Posterity will use paper Money in addition to Coins, and that this First President will be on its One Dollar Bill. Of course, this final Prognostication is but a wild Guess from a half-insane Mathematist.
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